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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."